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Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) offer investors the opportunity to gain exposure to rental income from a diverse portfolio of commercial properties, while benefiting from varied levels of credit protection through the securitization process. Since its inception in 1994, the U.S.-based asset class has grown significantly, reaching $1 trillion in size.

However, the recent turbulence in the U.S. banking sector has focused attention on this market, as concerns about capital structure have led banks to consider selling off real estate loans. This has understandably made some investors cautious, especially in light of the 2008-09 global financial crisis (GFC) and the stigma surrounding structured products with mortgage-backed collateral.

Despite these concerns, it’s essential to recognize that the majority of CMBS transactions successfully weathered the storm of declining property values during the GFC. Furthermore, subsequent enhancements to deal structures have bolstered investor protection, offering even greater security for those considering this investment avenue.

CMBS pass rental income from a variety of property types to investors. The actual properties serve as collateral to protect investors. In the event of actual losses, where rental income stops, and the value of the underlying properties is insufficient to fully compensate bond holders, lower-rated tranches1 of a CMBS deal absorb any shortfalls.

A typical loan that backs a CMBS structure is about 70% of the value of the property at the time of the loan. If shortfalls occur in interest payments, the property acting as collateral may end up being sold, but losses to even the most junior tranches start at 30% declines in value of the property. At the AAA level, there is another 30% of loan value (21% of property value, in this example) that absorbs declines in prices. As a result, an AAA-rated CMBS starts out with about 50% credit protection and that generally increases over the life of the securitization.

Figure 1. Example of U.S. CMBS Structure

Figure 1

Source: Principal Global Investors.

1Current ratings may be significantly lower. 2CMBS 2.0 defined as bonds issued post 2009 through 2014.

Within CMBS, bonds are organized into tranches according to their levels of credit risk. The highest quality, or senior, tranches receive interest and principal payments on loans and have the lowest associated risk. “AM” refers to AAA-rated mezzanine bonds; the mezzanine tier is one level below senior in the structure. “AS” refers to AAA-rated bonds that are subordinated within the mezzanine tier. The lowest tranches in CMBS offer higher interest rates but will contain the riskiest loans in the portfolio. Lower-level tranches are generally the first to absorb losses on any delinquent or non-performing loans.

The mechanics and structure of assets in any portfolio may differ materially from those outlined above. Over time, as loans in the pool default, the subordination levels may change (defaults pick up, subordination levels fall). Therefore, the table above uses hypothetical subordination levels as they would be at the time of deal structuring.

For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment.

Much of the analysis around CMBS valuations focuses on the predictability of rental income and on the value of the underlying collateral. This information is very detailed, and investors have access to loan and performance information that would not typically be available for smaller residential mortgages. The types of properties that are used in these deals generally fall into five broad categories, as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Property Type Breakdown of U.S. CMBS Market (as of December 31, 2022)

Figure 2
Source: Morningstar. Defeased CMBS refer to those issues which have amounts outstanding collateralized by cash equivalents or risk-free securities. The funds used as collateral are sufficient to meet all payments of principal and interest on the outstanding bonds as they become due. For illustrative purposes only.

In terms of structure, CMBS deals generally fit in one of four broad categories:

1)    Conduit deals, in which many properties are used to support the deal. These deals offer both geographic and property-type diversification.

2)    Single-asset/single-borrower (SASB) deals. These deals are backed by one large property, such as a large office building in a major city, or a well-known destination hotel.

3)    Agency multi-family housing deals. Guaranteed by FNMA or FHLMC, these deals are backed by large apartment complexes.

4)    Commercial real estate collateralized loan obligations (CRE CLOs). Similar to conduit deals, these are backed by a basket of commercial properties. These structures are relatively new in the history of the CMBS market but allow a manager some flexibility in determining the underlying collateral.

Credit ratings and actual losses for CMBS issues compare favorably with credit ratings in corporate credit. While investors understandably worry about the potential for rental revenue to dry up as property values fall, most of this risk is typically borne by investors who own the equity parts of a deal, or some of the lower-rated tranches that are most sensitive to any losses. At the AAA level, historic losses are confined to a small loss experienced from pre-crisis.

Figure 3. Historically, U.S. CMBS Have Seen Very Low Default Rates

One-year CMBS default rates by ratings category, 1996–2021
Figure 3
Source: S&P Global Ratings Research. Data as of 12/31/21 (latest available, derived from a yearly report). For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment
Overall, we find compelling value in CMBS, but remain cautious due to the many headwinds. Valuations are pricing in considerable economic stress and consequently offer significantly higher spreads than other areas of the bond market, with many ‘AA’-rated deals recently offering wider spreads than ‘BBB’-rated corporate bonds (see Figure 3). Note that investment-grade conduit CMBS and SASB CMBS recently offered additional spread compared with the broader CMBS category.

Figure 3. U.S. CMBS Option-Adjusted Spreads versus Similarly Rated Corporate Bonds

Data as of March 29, 2023
Figure 4
Source: Bloomberg. OAS=option-adjusted spread. BPS=basis points; one basis point equals one one-hundredth of a percentage point. Short-term CMBS as represented by by ratings-specific subsets of the Bloomberg U.S. CMBS 1-3.5 Year Index. Short-term corporate bonds as represented by ratings-specific subsets of the ICE BofA 1-3 Year Corporate Index. CMBS as represented by ratings-specific subsets of the Bloomberg U.S. CMBS Investment Grade Index. Corporate bonds as represented by ratings-specific subsets of ICE BofA U.S. Corporate Index. For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment. Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect the deduction of fees or expenses, and are not available for direct investment.
While there remain headwinds to certain property types, others are experiencing tailwinds, presenting a significant opportunity for those that can discern between them and price risk appropriately. Below are three examples, located in the U.S. states of Hawaii, New York, and Nevada, of some of our largest positions to highlight the opportunity in this area of the market.

Figure 5
As attractive as the spreads illustrated above are, with such a comfortable credit position (low LTVs; solid, increasing net operating income) for each, we believe the CMBS space is best owned in the context of a multi-sector portfolio with varied avenues for liquidity. CMBS tranches are considerably less liquid than typical corporate bonds, though having a network of relationships as a large buyer in the space certainly helps. We use this asset class among others, such as asset-backed securities (which typically are backed by consumer loans on autos or credit cards), and corporate and government bonds, to diversify the risks of each end market and diversify the liquidity risk of the portfolio, leaving us in a flexible position to capture spread opportunities as they arise.

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